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How the $200 billion disaster will affect the global economy

Sunday, March 20, 2011


Barclays projects the total costs of the earthquake will amount to 12-17 trillion yen ($152-217 billion).
Their calculations:
  • Building damages = reconstruction costs = JPY5-10trn (1.0-2.0% of GDP)
  • Expected losses to GDP = JPY2trn (private consumption) + JPY150bn (exports) – JPY217bn (imports) + JPY5trn (manufacturing output) + JPY0.3trn (electric power industry output) = JPY7trn (1.4% of GDP)
  • Total economic cost = JPY12-17trn (2.4-3.4% of GDP)
And the GDP impact:
With reference to the patterns following the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of 1995 and other factors, we revised our real GDP forecasts (q/q saar) as follows: Apr-Jun (to +0.8% from +3.2%), Jul-Sep (to +3.2% from +2.4%) and Oct-Dec (to +3.0% from +1.9%). In fiscal year terms, we lowered our forecast to +1.7% from +2.0% for FY 11 and left our forecast at +1.8% for FY 12. In calendar year terms, we lowered to 1.6% for CY 11 and left our forecast at 1.9% for FY 12.


Posted by Carlos Olin Montalvo at 10:01 AM  

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